Wawan Pembengo
Abstract: General Circulation Model (GCM) is a model for simulating impact
on rising gases in atmosphere of the global climate. Natural phenomena such as
floods, long droughts will affect results of cultivation plants. The use of GCM
model in making the forecast/prediction of climate on agriculture is intended to
obtain a feasible model to predict climate data that are time-series. Basically
GCM is a mathematical model showing the complex relationship between
thermodynamics and dynamics fluida that provides a description of the
atmosphere. On the journey GCM model already experiencing various
development goals for climate prediction. Use of climate models could also be
done for optimizing planting season with looking at the arrival and departure
wet and dry seasons are more appropriate. Data used in form of downscaling
output of which is GCM. Data on monthly rainfall station Polonia Medan.
Rainfall data observated starting in 1970 until 1997. SD model making use of
data in the years 1970-1996 (28 years). PCA analysis on the model 1 and 2
shown that error factors in model 2 is smaller than model 1. Value of diversity
data on 99.3 model 2 is relatively smaller than model 1 (101.8). Model 3 to
result error (RMSE) of 9.183 so that picture can be obtained by model 3 is the
most representative model.
Keywords : Statistical downscaling, Climate model, Agriculture
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